It was an eventful trading week filled with major news. Markets responded to strong US GDP figures and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan. The reports highlighted how quickly interest rate expectations are shifting, while oil reacted to a decline in inventories.
United States:
● New Home Sales (July). Actual figure: 652K / Forecast: 635K / Previous: 627K. The strong labor market data served as a positive factor for the US dollar.
Japan:
● BOJ Core CPI (Year-over-Year). Actual figure: 2% / Forecast: 2.4% / Previous: 2.3%. The weaker-than-expected figures pressured the yen, though by Thursday, the JPY strengthened after the BOJ’s hawkish comments about maintaining aggressive monetary policy.
United States:
● CB Consumer Confidence (August). Actual figure: 97.4% / Forecast: 96.3 / Previous: 97.2
Germany:
●GfK Consumer Climate (September). Actual figure: -23.6 / Forecast: -21.3 / Previous: -21.5. The weaker data had a modest negative effect on the euro.
United States:
●Crude Oil Inventories. Actual figure: -2.392M / Forecast: -1.700M / Previous: -6.014M. The decline in inventories supported oil prices in the short term.
Switzerland:
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.1% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: 0.5%.
Eurozone:
●ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The report noted inflation is nearing target levels, but Council members were divided: some pointed to further growth potential, others to the risk of a decline. Markets did not receive a clear signal regarding the future of interest rates.
United States:
●GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 3.3% / Forecast: 3.0% / Previous: -0.5%. This is a key indicator of economic health.
●Initial Jobless Claims. Actual figure: 229K / Forecast: 231K / Previous: 235K. The better-than-expected data raised expectations that the Fed will cut rates not only in September but at least twice more before year-end.
Germany:
● GMT: CPI (Month-over-Month) (August). Actual figure: 0.1% / Forecast: 0.0% / Previous: 0.3%. Stronger inflation could provide support for the euro.
United States:
● Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.3%.
● Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) (July). Actual figure: 2.9% / Forecast: 2.9%. This is the Fed’s key inflation gauge. As it aligned with the forecast, it did not have a significant impact on the markets.
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