The EUR/USD pair went up amid the weakening U.S. dollar last week, although there is still a lack of fundamental drivers—which are not ruled out this week—for the price to rise above previous highs.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, the resistance area between 1.0936 and 1.0958 has brought the increase in the EUR/USD pair to a stop. If the breakout and the consolidation above it occur, the growth target will be 1.1032 drawn along the highs from 2.02. The resistance at 1.1121 may be seen as the next growth target.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the first half of the week, there may be local spikes in the European single currency’s volatility triggered by the release of the German PMI and the Euro Area Services PMI.
The first index will be released on Wednesday at 7:55 am GMT and is projected at 53.9. At 8:00 am GMT, we are expecting the Euro Area Services PMI which is projected at 55.5, while the Euro Area Composite PMI may remain at 54.1.
Next, we should pay attention to the upcoming news from the United States, since the figures being higher or lower than expected may cause a surge in dollar volatility.
The United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for the month of March to be released at 12:15 pm GMT is projected at 200,000 compared to 242,000 last year.
At 2:00 pm GMT, the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of March is expected at 54.5, up from 55.1 earlier.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of EUR/USD, we have been witnessing a bounce off of the resistance level of 1.0936 so far. Should the price fail to overcome it, the pair may return to support at 1.0808.
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair rose to a ten-month high amid a decline in the U.S. dollar, which, from a technical standpoint, opens the way for further price growth.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD price has broken out the resistance at 1.2410, which, considering a favorable fundamental background, will enable the pair to continue rising toward 1.2600.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The behavior of the pair in the first half of the week will depend primarily on the volatility of the U.S. currency. That being said, you should pay close attention to the news from the United States. These are namely the Services PMI to be released at 8:30 am GMT. It is projected at 52.2 with Composite PMI being at 52.8.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart, the GBP/USD pair has been consolidating above 1.2410 without a pullback so far. It is, however, not ruled out yet, especially considering the news background in the United States. As long as this level remains standing as support, there is still a possibility of further growth.
The AUD/USD pair fell on Tuesday following the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting where it was decided to leave the interest rates unchanged at 3.60% for the first time after ten hikes in a row. This step was explained by the need to access the tightening impact on the Australian economy.
Possible technical scenarios:
AUD/USD quotes hit the resistance at 0.6798 and pulled away from it downward. Following the reversal, consecutive support levels of 0.6722 and 0.6631 marked with dotted lines will act as targets.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
After the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to put a monetary policy tightening on hold at its Tuesday meeting, the speech by Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe at 2:30 am GMT on Wednesday may affect the volatility of the Australian dollar.
In the meantime, the U.S. dollar is likely to continue having the upper hand in terms of the pair's volatility. The dynamics of the U.S. currency may surge on Wednesday following the release of United States ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data and the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected on Wednesday at 12:15 pm GMT and 2:00 pm GMT, respectively.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the AUD/USD pair, we can see that 0.6722 which is the nearest mirror support level can stop the price from falling. If this happens, the price may proceed to consolidate in the corridor between 0.6722 and 0.6798 before the volatility spikes on the news.
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