Since most of the week's major fundamental drivers don't start until Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair has been rather stable so far.
Possible technical scenarios:
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair is trading close to the support of the medium-term uptrend, as it is putting its strength to the test. At the same time, quotes are trading support of the sideways range between 0.0808 and 1.0958. If 1.0808 proves to be a resistance, the price may continue heading south toward 1.0707 marked with dotted lines. If this scenario does not play out, the price will continue to recover from the third point at the support for the uptrend.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
On Wednesday at 12:15 PM (GMT), the ADP will release statistics on changes in the number of employed in the US non-farm sector, which might have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar in the pair. As opposed to 324 thousand previously, 195 thousand are now expected.
US second-quarter GDP figures will also be made public at 12:15 PM (GMT). This is a lagging indicator, but if the actual data significantly differs from the projection, that might mean more volatility. Instead of a 2.0% expansion, economists now anticipate 2.4%.
The Euro Area Inflation Report, due out Thursday at 9:00 AM (GMT), may have an effect on the euro's behavior in the pair. Consumer Price Index projections call for a drop from 5.3% to 5.1% year-over-year and a hold steady at -0.1% month-over-month.
The influence of inflationary dynamics will be evaluated, and the subsequent report on personal consumption expenditures in the US in July will be a key factor in determining the value of the US dollar.
Intraday technical picture:
It is clear by looking at the 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair that there is still some uncertainty surrounding the level of 0.0808. It is essential to wait until the price settles above or below it before making a decision.
Following last week's drop, the GBP/USD pair is slowly but steadily climbing higher this week. The local weakening of the US dollar in anticipation of significant macroeconomic news that is anticipated for the second half of the week helps make this possible.
Possible technical scenarios:
The GBP/USD quotes are attempting to find a foothold below 1.2601 on the daily chart. If it is able to maintain its role as resistance, the next target to the south will be support at 1.2410. There is also the possibility of a recovery and a return to the range between 1.2601 and 1.2785. This would be an alternative scenario.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
There are no near-term events in the UK that are likely to spark substantial price swings. The dollar, which is likely to be volatile in response to macroeconomic data, will dictate the dynamics of the pair.
ADP will release updated figures for nonfarm payrolls in the United States at 12:15 PM (GMT) on Wednesday. Predictions are for a decrease of 195 thousand persons, down from 324 thousand. The second-quarter GDP report for the United States is scheduled for release at 12:15 PM (GMT). Forecasts put economic growth at 2.4%, up from 2.0%.
The US personal consumer spending report will affect the value of the dollar on Thursday.
Intraday technical picture:
As can be seen on the 4H chart of the GBP/USD, the pair is trading the level of 1.2601, which causes local uncertainty. It's possible that the news will make it clear where the pair stands in relation to this level and which way it's going.
After hitting new multi-month lows just last week, the AUD/USD pair is continuing to remain under pressure.
Possible technical scenarios:
As can be observed on the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair has moved into consolidation below the mirror level of 0.6458, which was formed by the lows on May 31. After consolidating below last week's lows, if this boundary holds as resistance, the drop might continue to support at 0.6255.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The AUD/USD pair this week will be highly sensitive to the swings in the US dollar. Market players will be keeping an eye on US macroeconomic statistics to gauge the likelihood of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the ADP will release its report on employment changes in the US non-farm sector for the month of August and second-quarter GDP figures.
On Thursday, data on U.S. personal consumption expenditures, seen to be a leading indication of inflation, will be made public.
The US employment report, normally released on Friday, September 1 at 12:30 PM (GMT), is the main event of the week that will affect the volatility of the US currency.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see on the 4H chart of the AUD/USD pair, a range between 0.6378 and 0.6458 has formed. It can continue to be traded until a volatility driver looks to be sufficiently strong to break out one of its boundaries. The 0.6255 level represents the objective south of the corridor, whereas 0.6537 is the objective north of the corridor.
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