This week, the EUR/USD pair reversed its direction as the US currency rebounded, recovering some of its earlier losses.
Possible technical scenarios:
Judging by the unfolding situation on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is dropping within the horizontal range between 1.0635 and 1.0808. If support at 1.0635 fails to halt the decline, the pair may target the 1.0448 level.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Market players closely followed Fed officials' statements this week. The dovish tone that weakened the dollar in recent weeks has shifted, with indications that it's premature to discuss the end of the US rate hike cycle. The probability of additional rate hikes in January has increased to one in four, compared to the previous one in six. Furthermore, expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed back to June.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart of EUR/USD reveals a consistent decline with a narrow movement margin towards the nearby support at 1.0635. The pattern of successive lower highs suggests that southward moves might be accompanied by pullbacks.
Throughout the week, the GBP/USD pair has been on a downward trend amid a strengthening US dollar. The technical picture we see on the chart indicates conditions that support the potential for additional weakening of the pair.
Possible technical scenarios:
A daily chart analysis of GBP/USD demonstrates the formation of a descending correction within an emerging ascending channel. The closest support lies at 1.2146, and a reversal from this point, confirming a continued trend, may pave the way for a potential recovery toward 1.2410.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
By the week's end, the pair experienced a downturn, influenced by the resurgence of the US dollar. The recovery of American currency is attributed to the Fed's revival of hawkish rhetoric.
On Thursday, Jerome Powell expressed skepticism about the adequacy of current interest rates to counter inflationary pressures, reigniting expectations for a potential additional Fed rate hike.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, there is enough room for downward movement toward the support range between 1.2146 and 1.2323. The strength of 1.2146 may also be tested during this process.
Against the backdrop of strengthening US dollar, the USD/JPY pair persists in its upward trajectory. The primary drivers for this increase are the Fed's commitment to a stringent monetary policy and the subdued sentiment regarding easing.
Possible technical scenarios:
As we can see on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair climbed beyond the 150 yen per dollar threshold. The closest resistance at 151.93 is nearly attained. If this objective is not achieved, the price is likely to consolidate within the range between 150.12 and 151.93.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The USD/JPY pair is buoyed by the strengthening US dollar, fueled by escalating rhetoric of the central bank’s representatives. At the same time, Japan's persistently loose monetary policy exerts downward pressure on the yen. Anticipations of Japanese intervention at 150 yen per dollar seem to have diminished. Aside from that, there were indications this week that the Bank of Japan might initiate monetary policy tightening next year, yet the market displayed minimal reaction to this information.
Intraday technical picture:
Analyzing the 4H chart of the USD/JPY pair, it's apparent that the price is trading in a new channel. There's a small room for movement towards its upper boundary. That being said, if recent highs are revisited and the pair successfully surpasses 151.93, the increase may continue within the trend toward the area around 152.80.
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