The coming five trading days will serve as a moment of truth for both the dollar and the euro. Markets are holding their breath: Will Powell confirm a hawkish pause, and how stubborn will Eurozone inflation prove to be amid persistent energy-driven pressure? Traders should brace for heightened volatility on Friday, as the convergence of holiday-thinned liquidity and the NFP release could make the charts a real minefield.
Powell's verdict: Monday sets the tone for the entire month. If the Fed dismisses market expectations of policy easing, the dollar is likely to receive a powerful bullish impulse.
Europe's inflation shock: Data from Germany and the broader Eurozone will reveal whether the ECB has managed to get inflation under control, or whether the energy trap continues to strangle the bloc's economy.
The Friday paradox: Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release on Good Friday, when major exchanges are closed. This is a perfect setup for erratic price spikes and significant gaps at the following week's open.
Eurozone
12:00 p.m. GMT: German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (March). (Forecast: 1.1%; Previous: 0.2%). Inflation in the EU's economic engine is accelerating. If the reading meets or exceeds the forecast, the ECB will be compelled to maintain its restrictive stance. In turn, this development would provide support for the EUR.
United States
2:30 p.m. GMT: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks. Markets are waiting for confirmation of a "higher for longer" stance. Any dovish shift in rhetoric would send the DXY into a steep decline, while a hawkish tone would cement dollar dominance.
📅 Tuesday, March 31
China
1:30 a.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (March). (Forecast: 50.2; Previous: 49.0). China is attempting to escape its stagnation zone. A reading above 50 would be a positive signal for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) and oil prices.
United Kingdom
6:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) and (Year-over-Year) (Q4). (Forecast: 0.1% and 1.0%; Previous: 0.1% and 1.0%). The British economy is walking a tightrope on the edge of recession. A downside miss would deal a significant blow to GBP/USD.
Eurozone
9:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (March). (Forecast: 2.5%; Previous: 1.9%). A defining moment for EUR/USD. An inflation spike would force traders to revise ECB rate expectations upward.
United States
2:00 p.m. GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (March). (Forecast: 88.0; Previous: 91.2).
2:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (February). (Forecast: 6.900M; Previous: 6.946M). If businesses are pulling back on hiring, it is the first signal that the Fed's restrictive policy is finally beginning to cool an overheated labor market.
United States
12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (March). (Forecast: 42K; Previous: 63K). This is the dress rehearsal ahead of Friday's main event. Weak figures could trigger premature dollar selling.
12:30 p.m. GMT: Retail Sales (MoM) (February). (Forecast: 0.4%; Previous: -0.2%). Consumer spending is what pushes the US economy forward. A positive reading would give the dollar a foundation ahead of the PMI release.
2:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI (March). (Forecast: 52.3; Previous: 52.4). The US manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory. Holding above 52 would confirm the resilience of the American economy relative to the EU and the UK.
Eurozone
8:00 a.m. GMT: ECB Monthly Economic Bulletin. The report will offer an assessment of inflation risks and the impact of energy prices. Expect elevated volatility across the EUR cross rates.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 212K; Previous: 210K). The final piece of the labor market picture ahead of NFP. Any spike above 220K will weigh on risk appetite.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Non-Farm Payrolls (March). (Forecast: 56K; Previous: -92K).
12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (March). (Previous: 4.4%).
12:30 p.m. GMT: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (March). (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4%). This is the most dangerous time of the week. The major data is dropping into a market with no exchange liquidity. Thin Forex conditions could amplify price swings to an irrational degree.
Stay flat on Friday: The most prudent course of action on April 3 is to close all positions by Thursday evening. Combining holiday-thin liquidity with the NFP release is not a trading opportunity — it is a lottery.
Keep a close eye on Eurozone CPI: Tuesday will be the decisive session for EUR/USD. If inflation proves sticky, parity is off the table, and the euro may stage a meaningful corrective rally.
Risk management is your only true ally: In a 2026 environment, where a single geopolitical headline can override any scheduled report, your position sizing must be calibrated to absorb a gap of 50–70 pips without triggering a stop-out.
Don't trade Powell's ‘expectations’: Wait for his Monday speech to wrap up, then enter on the confirmed directional impulse. Trying to front-run the Fed Chairman's words in this market is a fast track to tilt.
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