This week could easily be dubbed the Great Central Bank Parade. We are looking at a series of meetings from the world’s major regulators, such as the RBA, the BoE, the SNB, the BoJ, the Fed, the ECB, and the BoC. Against a backdrop of an intense geopolitical situation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, markets are shifting into “instrument-flying mode.” Any deviation from interest rate forecasts or a change in rhetoric from central bank heads will trigger a chain reaction of liquidations and price gaps.
United States
1:15 p.m. GMT: Industrial Production (Year-over-Year & Month-over-Month) (February). (Forecast MoM: 0.1%; Previous: 0.7%). Monday is expected to be relatively quiet, offering traders a chance to set up their defensive positions. A slowdown in industrial production may locally weaken the USD, but the effect will likely be short-lived ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision.
Australia
3:30 a.m. GMT: RBA Interest Rate Decision. (Forecast: 4.10%; Previous: 3.85%). The RBA is the only bank this week expected to take an actual step with a 25 bps hike. If the RBA follows through, the AUD could see explosive growth. If they hold rates steady, the Aussie will become a primary target for short sellers.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March). (Forecast: 24.0; Previous: 39.4). A sharp decline in European optimism is expected. This is a bearish signal for the euro, confirming fears of regional stagnation.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year). (Forecast: 1.9%). The final test before the ECB decision.
Canada
1:45 p.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision. (Forecast: 2.25%, no change). The Loonie (CAD) is expected to be extremely volatile, particularly in its correlation with oil prices.
United States
2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Given the blockade of the Strait, any inventory data will act as a detonator, setting off oil prices.
6:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision. (Forecast: 3.75%, no change). Rates will most likely remain unchanged, but all eyes are on Powell’s press conference.
6:30 p.m. GMT: Jerome Powell’s Press Conference. Traders will be searching for one answer—how long is the Fed willing to ignore oil-driven inflation? Expect volatility across all USD pairs.
Japan
03:00 a.m. GMT: Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 0.75%, no change). The yen (JPY) is in a zone of critical volatility. Any hint of an exit from the negative interest rate policy will send USD/JPY plunging by dozens or even hundreds of pips.
Switzerland
08:30 a.m. GMT: SNB Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 0.00%, no change). The traditional safe-haven asset (CHF) may show what it’s capable of if there are any surprises.
United Kingdom
12:00 p.m. GMT: Bank of England Rate Decision (Forecast: 3.75%, no change). The pound (GBP) is currently squeezed between high inflation and recessionary risks.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. These are key markers of how the US economy is dealing with high interest rates.
Eurozone
1:15 p.m. GMT: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 2.15%, no change). If the European Central Bank decides to change rates, volatility will spike across all EUR pairs.
Germany
5:30 p.m. GMT: Speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Europe’s leading hawk could wrap up the week, providing the market with a final impulse before the close. If Nagel confirms a restrictive course, the euro could find support for a rebound.
Risk management is your priority: This week, the only survivors will be those who use the mathematical calculation of a lot size. Do not jump into position "by eye" when the Fed gives speeches.
Keep your stats: In times of high volatility, the human brain has a tendency to panic. Trader’s Statistics is your unbiased audit. Only by tracking and analyzing your trades can you see if a loss resulted from a system error or simply market noise.
The oil factor: Keep in mind that Wednesday’s oil inventory data could overshadow the Fed's impact on commodity currencies. Take a cautious approach when trading USD/CAD and AUD pairs.
Don’t catch falling knives: If a central bank delivers an unexpected decision—like a surprise move from the RBA—, do not try to trade against the impulse. Follow the “train” direction.
To not get yourself into this week’s grinder of interest rate events, rely on accurate calculations. We have designed a handy guide to help you calculate risk and lot size so that even a Powell storm won't sink your trading deposit.
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